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 Post subject: Breeders Cup 2015
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:26 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:32 pm
Posts: 2781
Location: Texas
I thought I'd add this forum, probably should have created this section earlier. Post your picks, thoughts, etc..

With the scratch of Beholder in the Classic things appear to be much clearer than before her defection. AP now seems sure to get the lead, assuming something weird doesn't happen coming out of the gate. He has one of the best FR1 speeds, and his FR2 speed is even better, and he is a definite "E" type horse, the only one in the race, without even an E/P type that could decide to challenge for the early lead. Sure there are a couple of P types that could challenge, if they choose to, or if AP has trouble early, but I would put the chances of that happening pretty low. He has a good post position (4) and only needs a good jump from the gate to avoid early problems.

So, with AP on the lead, and probably on the rail, the next thing is for us to decide if other horses will pressure him early. Make no mistake, all the trainers and jockeys in this field know that if AP is not pressured he could wire the race. And, that simple possibility may indeed cause one of more of the jockeys to make the decision to step outside their horse's normal running style and attempt to run with AP. That could set this race up as a mirror of the Travers, where Frosted ran with AP early, apparently causing both horses to experience energy deficiencies in the stretch. But, those other jockeys also know what happened to Frosted, and may wait for someone else to perform that task for them. Who will step up, and when? That's the question.

Personally, I have no idea if anyone will take that job. It's a big question that they all must answer, in the spur of the moment. Which jockeys are aggressive and willing to possibly doom their chance of winning? Maybe it will be a jockey who thinks that his horse is not likely to finish in the money under the condition of AP running loose on the lead in a slowish pace. Maybe it will be a horse like Tonalist, who is a fighter, and always there in the stretch. Maybe he can pressure the pace and still be able to hold off Honor Code and the other closers. Maybe Keen Ice, who should relish the 1 1/4m, will run stronger early. Maybe the Irish miler will run good early. Who knows?

All I know is AP on a loose, easy lead, is not the best scenario for any of the others. Wouldn't it be great if we could read the jockeys' minds? One thing is pretty clear to me though, if AP has no problems early, and he is ready for this race, with all his guns loaded, it may not matter what anyone else does.



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Raybo
Creator of AllData PPs, Excel spreadsheet handicapping's next generation!
http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
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 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2015
PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:04 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:32 pm
Posts: 2781
Location: Texas
Well, AP had it his own way, and he brought his whole game, guns loaded, and he wired it in 2:00.07. That my friends is a very good time on a fair track, which Keeneland is. I don't think many can argue that he is more than just a horse who caught a weak crop. He's the real deal!

Effinex, who finished 2nd, after running 2nd most of the race, was the big surprise for me, and cost me the superfecta, the only bet I made all day. I had him on the 3rd and 4th rows, but not the 2nd. Very good race by him!

All in all, it was a great BCC, run in decent fractions by the winner, and pulling away down the stretch.

Hope you guys/gals had a very profitable BC this year!!



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Raybo
Creator of AllData PPs, Excel spreadsheet handicapping's next generation!
http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
AllDataExcel's YouTube channel (click the "Videos" tab): https://www.youtube.com/user/AllDataExcel/about
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 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2015
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:27 pm 
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Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:28 pm
Posts: 112
Better Late than not at all, but please forgive me Ray. I really appreciate the Black Box. It made Friday a very profitable day for me. It was not as successful on Saturday, but still cashed several tickets. I know for the 2 days combined, there was more tickets cashed by my wife and I than the past 3 BC meets combined. Unfortunately, I cant pocket that money. Gotta pay the Oncologist bill. Damn this fibrosis situation sucks........


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 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2015
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2015 12:17 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:32 pm
Posts: 2781
Location: Texas
No problem! I'm glad you made some money in the BC!!

Sorry to hear of your medical issues. Isn't fibrosis normally handled by a pathologist rather than an oncologist? I thought oncology deals with cancer specifically?

Regardless, we'll be praying for you!!!



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Raybo
Creator of AllData PPs, Excel spreadsheet handicapping's next generation!
http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
AllDataExcel's YouTube channel (click the "Videos" tab): https://www.youtube.com/user/AllDataExcel/about
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 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2015
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:37 pm 
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Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:28 pm
Posts: 112
you are correct about the oncologist. They have been testing for lymphoma, but now have ruled that out and an extremely rare fibrosis that will be treated by a rheumatologist. Those bill haven's started yet. but the others didnt hesitate to bill. LOL


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