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 Post subject: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2013 12:45 am 

Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:00 am
Posts: 17
Probable field for the 2013 Belmont Stakes

Horse Trainer Jockey Last race/finish
Always in a Tiz, Dominick Schettino, David Cohen, Wood Memorial 9th
Code West, Bob Baffert, Rosie Napravnik, Pimlico alw 1st
Freedom Child, Tom Albertrani, Luis Saez, Peter Pan 1st
Giant Finish, Tony Dutrow, undecided, Kentucky Derby 10th
Golden Soul, Dallas Stewart, Robby Albarado, Kentucky Derby 2nd
Micromanage, Todd Pletcher, undecided, Monmouth alw 1st
Midnight Taboo, Todd Pletcher, undecided, Belmont alw 2nd
Orb, Shug McGaughey, Joel Rosario, Preakness 4th
Overanalyze, Todd Pletcher, undecided, Kentucky Derby 11th
Oxbow, D. Wayne Lukas, Gary Stevens, Preakness 1st
Palace Malice, Todd Pletcher, Mike Smith, Kentucky Derby 12th
Revolutionary , Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano, Kentucky Derby 3rd
Unlimited Budget, Todd Pletcher, undecided, Kentucky Oaks 3rd
Will Take Charge, D. Wayne Lukas, Jon Court, Preakness 7th

Anyone care to offer thoughts on the impact of a 14 horse race with 6 trained by the same guy ? Conspiracy theorists have at it :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2013 1:03 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:32 pm
Posts: 2781
Location: Texas
Wow! I don't like the looks of this at all. Wonder if Palice Malice will run a 22 flat first quarter! LOL



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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2013 11:14 pm 

Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:00 am
Posts: 17
Well this is the only of the Triple Crown races I actually would have predicted (based on breeding ratings) that Orb would win. But he's going to need a ton of pace to run at so a few rabbits in here doesn't at all surprise me. And any horse that wins 2/3 the triple crown is still a breeding syndicates cash cow and will likely immediately retire to stud so there is plenty of reason to try and get that 2nd jewel either for Orb OR Oxbow.


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2013 10:10 am 
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Location: Texas
There are some good horses that could run this year, but until we know the field, I will venture no "guess" as to the possible winner. Belmont is such a different track, things can go awfully wrong really quick. Ideally, I would favor a horse that runs even fractions and has an experienced jockey that has many trips over the Belmont surface. Orb, if he even runs, will certainly be a contender but that's all I can say about him at this point. The same goes for Oxbow, who is more certain, in my opinion, of running in the Belmont.

Here is an early list of "maybe" runners this year:

Possibles for the field in the 2013 Belmont Stakes

Horse Trainer Jockey Last race/finish

Code West Bob Baffert undecided Pimlico alw, 1st
Freedom Child Tom Albertrani Luis Saez Peter Pan, 1st
Giant Finish Tony Dutrow undecided Kentucky Derby, 10th
Golden Soul Dallas Stewart Robby Albarado Kentucky Derby, 2nd
Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr. undecided Preakness, 2nd
Micromanage Todd Pletcher undecided Monmouth alw, 1st
Midnight Taboo Todd Pletcher undecided Belmont alw, 2nd
Mylute Tom Amoss Rosie Napravnik Preakness, 3rd
Orb Shug McGaughey Joel Rosario Preakness, 4th
Overanalyze Todd Pletcher undecided Kentucky Derby, 11th
Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas Gary Stevens Preakness, 1st
Palace Malice Todd Pletcher Mike Smith Kentucky Derby, 12th
Revolutionary Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano Kentucky Derby, 3rd
Unlimited Budget Todd Pletcher undecided Kentucky Oaks, 3rd
Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas undecided Preakness, 7th



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Creator of AllData PPs, Excel spreadsheet handicapping's next generation!
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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 11:16 am 
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I just put together my 2012-2013 Belmont workbook, using JCapper/HDW files. FWC comes out on top, regarding my testing of all 11 rankings methods. I'm posting some screenshots from the past 4 days of racing there (including the Met Mile card on Memorial Day, which was an FWC play although I never use that method for big stakes races. FWC missed the winner, 7 Sahara Sky, but the graph had the winner placed a close 2nd to the 2nd place horse, Cross Traffic, and IV had the winner ranked 2nd, and the place horse ranked 1st).

Last 4 race day's FWC plays at Belmont:
Attachment:
2013 Bel - 5-23 thru 27 FWC plays.png
2013 Bel - 5-23 thru 27 FWC plays.png [ 18.82 KiB | Viewed 6133 times ]


2013 Belmont meet thus far, odds report:
Attachment:
2013 Bel meet odds report.png
2013 Bel meet odds report.png [ 26.13 KiB | Viewed 6133 times ]


2013 Met Mile graph:
Attachment:
2013 Met Mile.png
2013 Met Mile.png [ 9.81 KiB | Viewed 6133 times ]


2013 Met Mile IV rankings:
Attachment:
2013 Met Mile-IV.png
2013 Met Mile-IV.png [ 12.19 KiB | Viewed 6133 times ]



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Raybo
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http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 11:38 am 
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Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:21 pm
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Location: IL
Ray,
What was your starting Database for BEL using FWC?
dlgreg


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 12:30 pm 
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Location: Texas
I tested the track normally but found that 24 races wasn't enough, so I ran the entire 2012 meet into the database, then started playing the 2013 meet. Some tracks just don't work well unless you have more races in the database, Belmont is one of those, I suspect the size of the track and the deeper surface are the reasons for that.



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Raybo
Creator of AllData PPs, Excel spreadsheet handicapping's next generation!
http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/
AllDataExcel's YouTube channel (click the "Videos" tab): https://www.youtube.com/user/AllDataExcel/about
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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:53 pm 

Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:42 pm
Posts: 17
Here is my final contenders for the 2013 Belmont stakes:
Orb
Revolutionary
Oxbow
Freedom Child
Will Take Charge

I would add Golden Soul in my super too.



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 Post subject: Re: Belmont 2013
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 8:33 pm 

Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:42 pm
Posts: 17
Revised:
5 Orb
9 Revolutionary
10 Will Take Charge
7 Oxbow



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