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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:21 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:25 pm
Posts: 27
Raybo wrote:
Alpha is out of the race, so one more horse that could have possibly beaten "IHA" is gone.

Right now I have "IHA" on top, with "Dullahan" 2nd (although "Dullahan" is sitting on a "2 race improvement" (my own nomenclature meaning early improvement 2 races back and late improvement last race) after the Preakness, and these 2 race improvements, historically, mean that the horse is ready for his best effort). With only 1 real "E" horse, in "Unstoppable U", an "E6", normally that would be the horse to figure, but not at Belmont, wire to wires just don't happen in that race. He also has some early contention from "Paynter", an "E/P5", so if they both hook up early I look for them to both be non-issues and fade badly, playing right into the hands of the off-the-pace horses, most notably "IHA" and "Dullahan".



Let's not forget DaTara, Ray. I think Unstoppable gets the rail but I haven't looked at the PP's yet.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:10 am 
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lsosa54 wrote:
Raybo wrote:
Alpha is out of the race, so one more horse that could have possibly beaten "IHA" is gone.

Right now I have "IHA" on top, with "Dullahan" 2nd (although "Dullahan" is sitting on a "2 race improvement" (my own nomenclature meaning early improvement 2 races back and late improvement last race) after the Preakness, and these 2 race improvements, historically, mean that the horse is ready for his best effort). With only 1 real "E" horse, in "Unstoppable U", an "E6", normally that would be the horse to figure, but not at Belmont, wire to wires just don't happen in that race. He also has some early contention from "Paynter", an "E/P5", so if they both hook up early I look for them to both be non-issues and fade badly, playing right into the hands of the off-the-pace horses, most notably "IHA" and "Dullahan".



Let's not forget DaTara, Ray. I think Unstoppable gets the rail but I haven't looked at the PP's yet.


I think Da Tara was the exception, not the rule, at Belmont. The horse only won 2 races out of a 8 -10 races, a maiden and the Belmont, never to win again. He's in Venezuela somewhere, the last I checked.

Regarding "Un U", I am definitely interested in getting his adjusted velocities after the data files are out. He, unlike Da Tara, has won his first 2 starts, the last one wire to wire in good fashion. The comparison between the 2 horses, IMO, stops with the wire to wire statement. "Un U" has much more going for him than Da Tara did. But, the fact remains that Belmont is the kind of race that just does not allow wire to wire performances, as a general rule.



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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 11:31 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:25 pm
Posts: 27
As a general rule, I can't argue with you, but I think one better be fairly close by the mile call. That's why I think IHA will be tough, unless he's just tired or makes a premature move on the turn and hangs. But I'll be looking to beat him if possible.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 12:20 am 
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lsosa54 wrote:
As a general rule, I can't argue with you, but I think one better be fairly close by the mile call. That's why I think IHA will be tough, unless he's just tired or makes a premature move on the turn and hangs. But I'll be looking to beat him if possible.


I agree, rooting for IHA, but trying to beat him with somebody!



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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:14 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:25 pm
Posts: 27
Well, Ray, no more trying to beat IHA - he's out with a leg problem. Amazing.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:18 pm 
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Yeah, that's a shame. The only thing worse, for racing, would have been for him to run and break down. We don't need any more of that in the TC/BC series. There's just too much media exposure, and seeing that happen drives people away from the game, not toward it, which is what we need to happen.

I wondered why IHA had done nothing but gallup recently, maybe they knew about this problem earlier than they said?



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 Post subject: Re: 2012 Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 6:30 pm 
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I bet several straight tickets again, at $1 and $2 each, and another $0.10 saver superfecta ticket. The saver ticket was the only one that hit (missed the 1 for 4th on another of my tickets and it would have paid $953, dangit!!)

Anyway, we won a few dollars on the race, again.

Here's the winning 10 cent saver ticket:

Attachment:
2012-06-09_182928.png
2012-06-09_182928.png [ 46.92 KiB | Viewed 2471 times ]



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